Will Jammu and Kashmir become the new Manipur?

The recent attempt by the Union government to modify the Jammu and Kashmir Scheduled Tribes Order to confer Scheduled Tribe status to the "Pahari ethnic group" is part of a bigger electoral game plan. This is a disturbing step, and the amendments must be thoroughly scrutinised. If not, Jammu and Kashmir is certain to encounter the same situation as Manipur.

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RECENTLY, the Union government introduced three amendment Bills related to the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) in the Parliament.

Of these Bills, the most important and controversial was the one introduced by the tribal affairs ministry, namely, the Constitution (Jammu and Kashmir) Scheduled Tribes Order (Amendment) Bill, 2023.

Through this Bill, the "Pahari ethnic group" will be added to the Union territory's Scheduled Tribes (ST) list, along with three other communities, namely, "gadda Brahmin", "Koli" and "Paddari tribe".

The ostensible purpose of this amendment bill, as stated by the Union home minister, Amit Shah, is the upliftment of the above-mentioned communities, particularly Paharis, by giving them ST status so that they get reservations in jobs and educational institutions. 

But opponents of the Bill allege that the real purpose of the Bill is to increase the support base of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Union territory by wooing the Pahari community.

The target groups that are allegedly to gain from the proposed Bills demonstrate that the BJP is trying to cobble up a social conglomeration for winning elections in the Union territory. 

This move by the Union government has created resentment among the Gujjar–Bakarwal communities of Jammu and Kashmir, who are concerned about a reduction in their share of reservation quota.

They believe that it is unjust to give reservation to members of the Pahari community who they argue are already educationally and economically in an advantageous position in the Union territory as compared to other communities. Gujjar-Bakarwals also allege that Paharis are well represented in the government services of the state.

BJP's political strategy: Upliftment or social conglomeration?

The Pahari community, which is mainly settled in the Pir Panjal region of the Union territory, has been demanding ST status for a long time. This is also the region where fault lines exist between the Gujjar-Bakarwals and the Paharis.

Paharis constitute Muslims, Hindus and Sikhs, and the only common thread that unites them is their language.

Ethnically, they are quite different from each other and do not fulfil any criteria of being a distinct ethnic group in order to gain ST status.

The only reason that the BJP is trying to woo them is that they are in the majority in seven of the eight seats in the Pir Panjal region of the J&K legislative assembly. 

But since these seats are reserved for the STs, the Pahari community goes unrepresented in these areas. By declaring Paharis as a Scheduled Tribe, it will make them eligible to contest polls on the seats reserved for already notified STs by the delimitation commission.

Gujjar-Bakarwals are nomadic-pastoral tribes of J&K who are mostly dependent on rearing sheep and goats. 

They engage in seasonal migration between the Kashmir valley during summers to find suitable pastures for their livestock and the low-lying areas of the Jammu region in winters for more favourable weather conditions.  

They are the third largest ethnic group in the Union territory after Kashmiris and Dogras. They are economically weaker compared to other communities of the erstwhile state and were notified as a Scheduled Tribe under the Constitution (Scheduled Tribes) Order (Amendment) Act, 1991.

Census 2011 data of the notified ST communities reveals that the Paharis are in the majority in Kalakote, Sunderbani, Nowshera, Rajouri (ST), Thanamandi (ST), Surankote (ST), Poonch-Haveli, and Mendhar (ST).

Darhal (ST) is the lone seat in the Pir Panjal where Paharis are in the minority and Gujjar-Bakarwals are in the majority.

The BJP has high hopes of winning these ST seats whenever elections are held in the state.

The BJP also does not want to offend the Gujjar-Bakarwals in the Pir Panjal region, who are notified  STs with sizable population in J&K.

That is why it has been clearly stated that identifying Paharis as ST will not affect the quota of Gujjars-Bakarwals in government jobs or educational institutions.

However, this has not resulted in the desired outcome of pacifying these communities. They are concerned that, despite the government's assurance in this regard, they will be ultimately overshadowed and outnumbered by the Pahari community if they are granted ST status.

The intellectuals and community leaders from among the Gujjar-Bakarwals have already met the Union home minister to discuss this issue. They are also planning protests and demonstrations in the Union territory of J&K as well as in New Delhi.

Protests against the proposed amendments are gathering steam, and the divide between the Gujjar-Bakarwals and the Pahari group is widening.

Learning from Manipur: Avoiding a Crisis in Jammu and Kashmir

Jammu and Kashmir is a frontier region like Manipur, which has been torn apart by ethnic clashes since April 2023. In Manipur, the situation got out of hand due to the BJP's tactics of pitting one community against the other in order to increase its footprint in the state.

Although the state of Manipur has a long history of ethnic tensions, the current crisis was sparked by the Manipur High Court Order recommending to the state government that the Meiti community in the state be granted ST status.

This Order of the high court angered the Kuki community, who are already marginalised and fear that if Meities are granted ST status, they will be unable to compete with them, as the Meities are economically and educationally much better than Kukis.

A similar situation is gradually developing in the Union territory of J&K. The resentment among the Gujjars-Bakarwals, which has been simmering since the Union government's announcement of a 4 percent reservation for the Pahari community, has the potential to snowball into a major crisis.

It is important that the Union government rise above petty politics and carefully analyse the situation in J&K before going ahead with its proposed amendment of providing ST status to the "Pahari ethnic group", lest it will face a similar situation as in Manipur.