The diminishing dream of Article 370: Analysing the impossibility of restoration

Restoration of Article 370 is an election issue in Jammu and Kashmir, but is it just an empty promise, asks Yasir Altaf Zargar.

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ON August 5, 2019, a momentous and contentious moment in Indian constitutional history unfolded.

The abrogation of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) under Article 370 of the Indian Constitution alongside the termination of the 'state subject' provision under Article 35A was approved by both houses of the Indian Parliament.

The executive action received Presidential assent on August 9, 2019. It dramatically reshaped the political landscape of J&K, fundamentally altering the region's administrative and legal framework, and splitting the former state into two Union territories— J&K, with a legislative assembly and Ladakh without a legislative assembly.

The Supreme Court upheld the executive action, reasoning that it aligned with India's national interest. Subsequently, the promise of reinstating Article 370 has become a key electoral plank for several political parties in J&K.

However, such a restoration remains, at best, a distant hope— if not an outright impossibility. Let us explore why this political rhetoric is misleading and why Article 370 is unlikely to return.

Constitutional and legislative hurdles

Restoring Article 370 is not merely a question of political will; it requires surmounting significant constitutional and legislative barriers. Any constitutional amendment to that end would need the support of a two-thirds majority in the Indian Parliament— a challenge that cannot be understated.

The Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC), despite its vocal opposition to the abrogation, lacks the political leverage to influence Indian national policy.

Also read: Revocation of Article 370 in Kashmir through the lawfare lens

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has no parliamentary representation to drive such efforts forward. Smaller parties such as Engineer Rashid's Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) have even lesser influence. And if these parties were to collaborate with a national alliance, securing the necessary numbers would remain an immense challenge.

Currently, no single political party in India or any regional coalition, holds the numbers needed to secure such a majority. Even if a party or a coalition of opposition parties (such as the INDIA alliance) forms the Union government in the future, aligning the divergent interests of these groups would prove difficult.

Many parties within the alliance have differing political objectives and ideologies, making it nearly impossible to build a consensus on reinstating Article 370 and Article 35A.

For instance, the INDIA alliance includes parties like the Indian National Congress, which has remained largely silent on the issue of restoration of Article 370, and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which welcomed the abrogation in 2019.

Therefore, the recurring promises by regional parties such as the NC, PDP and AIP to restore Article 370 are not only unrealistic but politically misleading.

These parties are well aware of the constitutional and legislative obstacles involved. Yet, by continuing to present the restoration as a viable electoral promise, they are misleading the electorate in Jammu and Kashmir into believing that a reversal is possible in the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, such promises are likely to remain just that— promises.

Public sentiment and national priorities

Another significant factor is the changing priorities of the electorate. In India, the termination of the autonomy of J&K was framed as a move toward fully integrating it into the Indian Union and enhancing national security.

Many political parties and voters across India, including influential national players like the AAP, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Shiv Sena, either supported or accepted the decision as a step toward long-term stability for a region that has faced decades of conflict. This public sentiment in India makes it even more difficult for parties in J&K to achieve their stated goal of restoring Article 370.

Also read: Justice Kaul calls for TRC in Kashmir, but look at the fate of those whose work can enable it

This shift in public sentiment reduces the likelihood of parties in India prioritising the reversal of the abrogation. In J&K, the public discourse on the restoration of Article 370 is even more complex. The pro-Pakistan or pro-Independence sections of the society, which still constitute a majority of the population, view it as a distraction at best from the stated goal of complete freedom from India.

There is also a recognition that restoring Article 370 might be an insurmountable challenge, so many want to focus on more mundane and achievable goals like development, employment, infrastructure and restoration of statehood, and leave the significant impact the loss of autonomy will have on these issues to fate.

This shift in voter priorities means that parties advocating for the restoration of Article 370 may not receive the overwhelming support they expect.

False narratives in electoral strategy

The continued emphasis on the restoration of Article 370 as an electoral promise by J&K's parties has become more of a political strategy than a realistic goal.

By appealing to voters' emotions around identity and autonomy, these parties sidestep the practical realities that make its restoration nearly impossible. These narratives create a sense of false hope among voters, which is likely to be belied, adding to the disillusionment with India.

NC's failed promises and its legacy

When elections were held in J&K for the first time after the disillusionment with India had boiled over in the form of an insurgency, the JKNC fought on the promise of restoring the autonomy of J&K to its pre-1953 status.

All they managed to do was pass a resolution in the J&K legislative assembly to this effect in 2000.

This historical failure highlights the futility of similar attempts today. The obstacles that prevented the fulfillment of these promises in the past remain obstacles today, making the reversal of Article 370 even less achievable.