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Rajasthan's legislative assembly elections draw near, with various socio-political factors making the result indicative of the Lok Sabha's elections next year. The Indian National Congress is leaving no stone unturned to secure a consecutive win. Will the new schemes it has introduced in Rajasthan, combined with the alliance between 26 political parties, be the winning formula?
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AS India's growth story becomes a staple of global developmental discourse, Indian voters are reacting to this new reality.
Voters' expectations from the government are no longer limited to basic requirements of roads, electricity and water. The demands of voters have moved up the Malthusian hierarchy, seeking the material conditions that will allow them to lead their lives on their own terms.
This aspirational desire is what political parties have been trying to woo with the promise of development for the past decade.
The incumbent Congress government of Rajasthan has recognised the ambitions of citizens to lead a quality life, hence making employment policies a central plank for their campaign in the poll-bound state.
The lingering effects of the pre-Covid economic slowdown and the blowback of inflation have pushed a large section of the population to expect better services directly from the state.
This is whom the Congress seems to be banking on in the upcoming Rajasthan state elections, as they have announced a slew of policies to curb unemployment.
On July 18, 2023, Congress blew the bullhorn on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections by announcing its alliance, Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).
With 26 parties onboard, who are in power in almost a dozen states across the country, the alliance needs a hardline to stand by, because ideologically, they are all over the place.
It is here that the issues can act as the glue and policies as the solutions by which the alliance can stand together.
The Indian National Congress, being the largest party in the alliance, will have to be the one to come up with this alternative narrative.
The Congress has witnessed a largely successful campaign in Karnataka, and has come up with the idea of focusing exclusively on employment and local issues.
The Congress has witnessed a largely successful campaign in Karnataka, and has come up with the idea of focusing exclusively on employment and local issues.
Therefore, it is important to carefully scrutinise the policies in Rajasthan to understand what these solutions entail and whether or not the voters want them.
The Ashok Gehlot government is no stranger to populism. His earlier tenure between 2008 and 2013 was marked by schemes that focused on subsidising everything, from medical expenses to travel.
The government's strategy failed to produce the desired result and it significantly marked the beginning of the end of the domination that Congress had over Indian politics.
Having gone back to the drawing board, Gehlot has come up with a new strategy to win voters.
The Gehlot government is catering to the citizens' desire to be independent, and instead of providing subsidies, they will be provided with direct opportunities for employment.
This time around, Gehlot's government is catering to the citizens' desire to be independent, and instead of providing subsidies, they are being provided with direct opportunities for employment.
The best way to understand the new political strategy is by looking at three schemes.
This scheme was launched in 2022 along the lines of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee (MGNREGA) Act, 2005.
The idea behind the scheme was to ensure the safety of families living in urban areas by providing them with 100 days of guaranteed employment in a year.
Any person between the ages of 18–60 could avail the scheme, and according to the government, close to seven lakh people were linked to it.
The scheme is touted as the nation's largest employment scheme for people living in cities, under which, employment is provided in two categories: unskilled labour and skilled work.
A recent amendment to the scheme increased the number of working days from 100 to 125.
The Bill can be understood in two parts: the first part addresses concerns regarding employment provided under the MGNREGA and IGUEGS. The number of days under both schemes has been increased to 125.
Populism has not necessarily worked [for the Congress], but in the face of inflation and unemployment, coupled with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s public image as a pro-private-sector organisation, the result may actually go in favour of Gehlot
The second part of the Bill focuses on direct cash transfers of ₹1,000 per month to the elderly, widows, single women and disabled people.
The pension will increase by 15 percent annually— 5 percent in July, followed by a 10 percent increase in January.
What makes this provision unique, is that it is not an administrative Order; it is a law which has been cleared by the legislative assembly, which makes social security a right.
Rajasthan is among the four states in the country that have reverted from the new pension scheme to the old one.
According to the earlier setup, the amount of the monthly pension was equal to half of the last salary drawn by an individual.
The new pension scheme changed that to 60 percent of the amount invested after retirement, meaning the contribution had to be made by the employee and not just the government.
These policies are the bedrock on which Congress will base its campaign. Populism has not necessarily worked, but in the face of inflation and unemployment, coupled with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s public image as a pro-private-sector organisation, the result may actually go in favour of Gehlot.
However, reversing this 30-year-old trend is easier said than done.
The Hindi heartland is the bastion of Hindutva. It is here that the ideology is the most deeply rooted and secures the majority of the seats for right-wing Hindu parties in the Parliament.
Voters in these regions have shown affinity with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh's cause and have chosen the BJP over socialist alternatives in the past.
BJP has been hinting at a highly emotional octave campaign, as made evident by recent comparisons of the state with Manipur. Additionally, there is bound to be an air of tense local sentiments.
The tense locus comes as a result of two unfortunate events, one involving the beheading of a tailor in retaliation against a blasphemy accusation and the other being the burning of two people on the back of a cow smuggling accusation.
Both of the events received widespread attention and polarised people.
Some might argue that Hindutva campaigns can backfire, as made evident by the Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh election. In both cases, the BJP was the defending incumbent; here, the tide will be in their favour.
Apart from Rajasthan, three other similar-sized states, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Telangana, are going to the polls before the Lok Sabha elections in 2024.
However, Rajasthan's elections specifically stand out because it is the only state that has a defined trend of voting the incumbent out.
Rajasthan's elections specifically stand out because it is the only state that has a defined trend of voting the incumbent out.
Of the other three states, Chhattisgarh and Telangana do not have enough data to extrapolate any results, and Madhya Pradesh will have an incumbent BJP government.
Moreover, in Rajasthan, both the political parties are evenly matched. Both of them have a chief ministerial face— Vasundhara Raje for the BJP, and each faces a rival within.
There is a firm organisational structure, and no third regional party undercuts the presence of either. Thus, the Rajasthan elections are certainly the ones to watch out for.
