Rajnikanth's entry to politics will have impact on the 2021 state assembly poll, but he also faces many challenges to succeed in politics, writes KALYANI SHANKAR..——-.COME 2021, Tamil Nadu is getting ready to welcome the mega superstar Rajinikanth's political party even as he is yet to announce its name. After many decades of playing the role of the Hamlet in real life whether to jump into politics or not, at last he seems to have made his decision. He has realised that it is 'now or never' and feels "Political change is necessary".."It is the need of the hour. If it is not done now, it will never be done. For this, I urge people to stand by me. Together we will bring change," the superstar-turned politician tweeted this week. His announcement comes as a relief for fans and his fan club, Rajini Makkal Mandram (RMM)..The actor will turn 70 on December 12. Interestingly he is entering a new filed when others retire..'Thalaiva', as he is affectionately called by his fans, had first announced his decision of entering politics in December 2017. In March this year, he declared that he did not wish to be the chief minister and would pick someone educated and responsible as the chief ministerial candidate..“So why is Rajni taking the plunge? Obviously, he is eyeing the political space vacated by the two icons- Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi who died in 2016.."In the upcoming Assembly elections, the emergence of spiritual politics will happen for sure. A wonder will happen," Rajinikanth said on Twitter..It is no big secret that every time before Assembly or Lok Sabha elections since 1996 there are rumours about the super star's entry into politics. In 1996 the Congress offered him the Chief Ministership to counter the AIADMK chief J. Jayalalithaa. Since then there is speculation about this, and he too had kept the option open..So why is Rajni taking the plunge? Obviously, he is eyeing the political space vacated by the two icons- Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi who died in 2016. With the leadership crisis in almost all parties in Tamil Nadu, he thinks he could fill that vacuum..While many are betting whether he would be successful in politics or not, Rajini has taken a big significant step in his life. It is indeed a big gamble as politics is different and films are different. Being successful in one filed does not mean success in the other..Some have made it big in politics and films and some others have not succeeded like Shivaji Ganesan who became just a Congress M.P. DMK chief M. Karunanidhi, and AIADMK leaders M.G. Ramachandran, and Jayalalithaa have all had film background. Even Vijay Kant who was successful to an extent in launching his MDMK, could not progress much..“It is indeed a big gamble as politics is different and films are different. Being successful in one filed does not mean success in the other..So what is Rajini's game plan? Is he going to be on his own or as some people predict that he has the backing of the BJP? BJP and the AIADMK have welcomed his move. Other smaller parties are not enthusiastic..Rajinikanth, despite his superstar status, has many challenges. First of all, he is a novice to politics. So far, he has not even campaigned for any party at any time..He is coming at a significant time when the incumbent AIADMK-BJP alliance, DMK-Congress-Left front and fellow actor Kamal Haasan have already sounded the poll bugle. Is it possible for him to join any of this combination as the elections have become a game of arithmetic? Without alliances, no party can win in a splintered polity, which is what Tamil Nadu is today..The smaller parties like PMK, MDMK, DMDK and others besides the two national parties – the Congress and the BJP – are all minor players in the state and are watching the entry of new players like Kamal Haasan and Rajinikanth..Thirdly, he does not have any caste backing or ideological backing. He is yet to declare the ideology of his party though he has just said it is a spiritual party. How will that jell with the already established parties?.“He is yet to declare the ideology of his party though he has just said it is a spiritual party. How will that jell with the already established parties?.Above all, elections have become more and more based on caste and religion. For instance, the AIADMK, DMK, PMK and MDMK are all Dravidian parties. The BJP is a national party..What is new that Rajini is bringing to the table?.Fourthly, though Rajini might be charismatic and a crowd puller will he be able to translate his popularity into votes? He needs a core team, consolidation of his new party at the ground level and enough time to build up the party. So far no big names have emerged and for politics, you need an organisation and good people to attract votes. Politicians quite often gravitate to new parties..Running a party is a costly affair and fighting elections will be much more challenging..“Further, if Rajini joins hands with the BJP, he will risk losing the support of his huge minority base in the state. Can he take that risk?.Will he be able to find candidates to contest polls? How will he finance them? Some sources say that BJP is ready to finance him..He had, last year, launched his own website 'rajinimandram.org' and a party logo. In a video message to his fans, the superstar had appealed to them to register to the website and help him develop Tamil Nadu..The opposition might make use of his Maharashtrian origin. He hails from Maharashtra though he claims that he is a "Pachai Tamizhan," – a true Tamilian. The opposition may try to use his non-Tamil origins, but he can always turn to the example of Jayalalithaa and MGR. MGR was born in Kerala and Jayalalithaa in Karnataka. Further, if Rajini joins hands with the BJP, he will risk losing the support of his huge minority base in the state. Can he take that risk?.There are many imponderables. However, in spite of all these, Rajini is a phenomenon and a factor in the 2021 Assembly polls in Tamil Nadu. (IPA).(Kalyani Shankar is a senior journalist and political commentator. Views are personal.)
