Opposition Bandies Together to Support Farmers, but can it Emerge as a Force?

After a long time, opposition parties have come together by throwing their weight behind the farmers' agitation. But will it be able to whip up an anti-BJP front? It can only succeed if it has a strong, charismatic and popular leader who can take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  Unfortunately, there is no one in the opposition camp who fits the bill, says ANITA KATYAL. 

———–

The ongoing agitation by farmers, demanding the repeal of the recently-enacted farm laws, has provided a much-needed impetus for the otherwise somnolent and demoralised opposition parties to shake off their diffidence and come together on a common platform to take on the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.

The farmers, especially from north India, are apprehensive of the new laws which they fear will marginalise them and force them to be at the mercy of corporates who would buy their products and control the market. Organisations affiliated with farmers have dubbed the laws as "anti-farmer" while the government insists that it brought them wanting to reform the existing structure. Lakhs of people have taken part in the protests and the agitating farmers have threatened to stop supplies if their demands are not met

Stepping out of their comfort zone, the opposition parties extended their support to the call given by the protesters for a Bharat Bandh on December 8.

Eleven opposition parties, including the Congress,  Nationalist Congress Party,   Samajwadi Party,  Rashtriya Janata Dal, DMK and the Left parties have backed the farmers. In a parallel move, several others like the Trinamool Congress, Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi have also lent their support.

At the same time, the farmers' stir came in handy for the Akali Dal, a long time ally of the National Democratic Alliance. BJP. It has been exploring the possibility of forming an anti-BJP front of regional parties ever since it walked out of the alliance.

Realising that this is the right time for such outreach, an Akali Dal delegation met Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray at his official residence on Sunday ostensibly to seek his support for the farmers' agitation. But the real purpose was to probe if the Shiv Sena chief would be amenable to joining the proposed anti-BJP grouping.

The Akalis have also been in touch with Sharad Pawar, chief of the National Congress Party who facilitated the meeting with Thackeray.

The Akalis also sounded out the Telugu Desam Party head N.Chandrababu Naidu.

It has been proposed that the regional parties set up a coordination committee, headed by the Akali veteran Parkash Singh Badal, to chalk out their future strategy.

Now that the BJP is on the back foot as far as the farmers' agitation is concerned, the opposition has made tentative moves to put together a united fight on this issue.

The big question is whether this will trigger a long-term realignment of political forces or whether this show of unity will die a natural death once this agitation peters out.

The last time the opposition parties of all hues came together was in 2015 when they joined hands to oppose the amendments to the Land Acquisition Act.

This did lead to greater floor coordination among the opposition parties in Parliament but it ended there.

There is no doubt that the ongoing farmers' agitation has put the Modi government in a spot but it has, over the past six years, proved fairly adept at scoring over its political rivals and tiding over a crisis.

To begin with, time is on the BJP's side. The next Lok Sabha election is not due till 2024.

A lot can happen over the next four years.

Take the recent case of the long arduous journey undertaken by jobless and hungry migrants back to their native villages during the lockdown. Most of them were from Bihar. Many expected that the BJP would pay a heavy price for its callousness in the Bihar Assembly polls barely a few months later. But instead of suffering losses, the BJP got a handsome tally in the elections.

Similarly, the BJP had appeared to be on a weak wicket months before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. However, the Pulwama attack and India's surgical strike at Balakot changed the narrative of the poll campaign in favour of the saffron party.

The opposition, on the other hand, has made it a habit to blow its chances. After a brief show of strength, it invariably falls apart because coalition partners are unable to transfer votes to each other's party. Or they get bogged down by state-level rivalries and a clash of egos. This was evident when the Trinamool Congress issued a separate statement extending support to the agitating farmers as it did not want to be seen in the company of the Congress or the Left parties months before the West Bengal assembly polls.

No one can forget how opposition leaders from across the political spectrum lined up for an impressive photo-op when Janata Dal (S) leader H.D.Kumaraswamy was sworn in as Chief Minister in 2018 with the support of the Congress. It was widely believed then that this gathering would lead to the emergence of a broad anti-BJP coalition. But it was not to be as turf wars during seat-sharing negotiations proved to be their undoing.

Bahujan Samaj Party chief Mayawati and Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav did sink their longstanding differences and contested the 2019 general election together. But the tenuous nature of the relationship came to the fore following their disastrous performance in the polls after which the two leaders lost no time in parting company with each other.

The SP and the BSP  had clearly not bargained for the fact that the BJP had made deep inroads into their respective vote banks by snaring the support of the non-Yadav backward castes and the non-Jatav Dalits.

The opposition cause is also not helped by the fact that the Congress is weak, discredited and faces a serious leadership crisis.

Despite their aversion to the Congress, regional forces need the party on its side to hold it together. Former Janata Dal (U) leader Sharad Yadav had once remarked that any opposition coalition requires a strong anchor and this role can only be played by a national party like the Congress. However, Congress is unable to play that role given its present pitiable state.

Moreover, regional parties are wary of doing business with a Rahul Gandhi-led Congress as the Nehru-Gandhi scion does not inspire confidence among them.

There is also a question mark over the attempts being made by the Akalis to form a regional front without the Congress. This will please the BJP no end as it finds it easier to deal with regional parties that are ideologically flexible and guided largely by the interests of their respective states. Moreover, most regional parties, except the RJD and the Left parties, have aligned with the BJP in the past.

But, most importantly, an anti-BJP grouping can only succeed if it has a strong, charismatic and popular leader who can take on Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Unfortunately, there is no one in the opposition camp who fits the bill.

(Anita Katyal is a senior Delhi-based journalist who loves covering parliament when it is in session and otherwise figuring out the political anachronisms in India. The views are personal.)