BASHAR Al-Assad has reportedly left Syria for an unknown destination. His regime, which has been teetering since the beginning of the Arab Spring, has collapsed like a house of cards.Syria and Bahrain were the only two States to have survived the revolutionary upheaval. For analysts worldwide, it has come as a surprise. Since October 7, 2023, Assad had played it safe. He feared giving a free hand to Iran and Hezbollah against Israel via Syria’s territory. He knew that any open support to his allies in the region could cost him his regime at the hands of Israel and the US.On the other hand, his allies, Russia and Iran, were already reeling under stress. Russia in Ukraine and Iran with Israel. It seems that the rebels sniffed an opportunity and started the march.Who are these rebels? Of the many rebel or combatant groups operating and controlling parts of Syria, the group that has made Assad flee is called Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTAS). It is led by Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani..Syria and Bahrain were the only two States to have survived the revolutionary upheaval of the Arab Spring..Jolani is a former Al Qaeda and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) operative. In August 2011, he was sent by Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi to Syria to establish a new Syrian branch of the Islamic State (IS). On January 23, 2012, Jolani established his group Jabhat al Nusra li Ahl al Shaam (Support Front for the People of Levant).In 2013, an overambitious Baghdadi unilaterally announced the merger of Jabhat al Nusra with his Iraqi dominion. Jolani rejected the move. In 2016, Jolani broke all ties with Al Qaeda and ISIS and established the Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant) (HTAS).Jolani had learned from the experience of the Arab Spring that secretive terror-oriented and transnational goals espoused by the likes of Al Qaeda and ISIS will not help in fomenting public support in Syria..How identity politics and unidentifiable solidarities affected the 2024 US Presidential elections.In 2017, HTAS pushed back Ahrar Al-Sham, its former ally and one of its major rivals, widened its governance capabilities and contributed towards the setting up of the Syrian Salvation government.HTAS also moved towards a more pragmatic approach towards occupiers such as Turkey. Within HTAS, the purists and pragmatists have succeeded in striking a balance. HTAS has learned from the experience of the many splintered jihadist groups who have faded into political oblivion. HTAS reportedly has 30,000 fighters.The fall of Assad in such a short time is exasperating for both his allies and adversaries. The US, which occupies the oilfields, and mineral-rich areas of Syria and through their proceeds is funding the Kurdish resistance, will face a difficult situation.Negotiating with HTAS will be the only option for the US. Unlike the IS, HTAS has a semblance of popular backing as the medallion of pulling down the Assad family rule will shine on its lapel. Globally, the US has 15,373 active sanctions as of April 2024. The new Syria under HTAS will certainly not reduce these numbers.Russia will be upset with the current situation. Russia had intervened in the Syrian Civil War on Assad’s side at the insistence of Iran (especially the deceased commander Qasem Soleimani)..Pro-Netanyahu newspaper The Jerusalem Post has celebrated Assad’s fall as the “end of Tehran–Damascus–Beirut Axis”. At the same time, it has warned that the new regime will be “unpredictable” because of its jihadist nature..Attacks on the anti-Assad coalition by the Russian air force proved to be crucial in tipping the fragile balance in favour of Assad. Putin had opposed Barrack Obama’s toppling of Muammar al Gaddafi in Libya. The loss of Syria would have meant losing an ally in West Asia. Intervention in the Syrian Civil War also allowed Russia to test over 600 new weapons.Russian forces have not yet evacuated the Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria as of December 6, but it remains unclear whether Russia will keep its vessels at the port as Assad has fled the country.Israel, on its part, has taken control of the Syrian side of Mount Hebron and has conducted three airstrikes in the Kafr Sousa district of Damascus (Syrian capital) along with a research centre where it has previously said that Iranian scientists had developed missiles..The UN Charter is outdated and unfit for purpose.Pro-Netanyahu newspaper The Jerusalem Post has celebrated Assad’s fall as the “end of Tehran–Damascus–Beirut Axis”. At the same time, it has warned that the new regime will be “unpredictable” because of its jihadist nature.It has to be seen whether HTAS will take up the issue of Palestine with a radical tenacity. In an interview, Jolani had claimed that his name was a reference to his family’s roots in the Golan Heights (two-thirds of which is occupied by Israel).However, if the past is any indication, Jolani will be reluctant to challenge the West and Israel. In his last declaration, Jolani stated that his chief intention was to topple Assad and impose Islamic rule in Syria. He has succeeded in his first goal. The imposition of Islamic rule is what lies ahead.History stands witness to the fact that all such experiments which involved the imposition of religion politically have failed. They have turned out to be nightmarish for religious minorities. The Alawites (the sect to which the Assad family belonged), which constitute about 12 percent of the Syrian demographic pie and reside predominantly in the coastal towns of Syria, could be the potential target of the new regime..The United Nations, on its part, has called for “cautious hope”. A cautious hope signals impending tragedy. The people of Syria will be the victims of this tragedy..The United Nations, on its part, has called for “cautious hope”. A cautious hope signals impending tragedy. The people of Syria will be the victims of this tragedy.Bashar Al-Assad, the ophthalmologist-turned-dictator, has left behind a brutal legacy. His rule marked the liquidation of 500,000 Syrians. History has now come a full circle. A version of his old jihadist enemies now occupy Syria. Only time will tell whether the new leaders will succeed in ending the cycle of violence.
