Whither Mumbai 2050?

Will Mumbai survive this onslaught of real estate and road-building propaganda? Are we ready to face the coastal inundation due to climate change, as predicted by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its reports? Is all the real estate being put up to meet the housing demands of the large number of people in this city who live in squalid conditions— in slums or on footpaths? Or is it adding to the global carbon emissions through the embodied carbon of cement and steel, especially as the city managers envision and announce a Net Zero City by 2030?.—.IT was the announcement of the demise of Sharad Kale, the visionary former municipal commissioner of Mumbai, in a local newspaper that led me to think that it is time for Mumbai to rethink its growth. What is Mumbai going to be like in 2030, 2050 or 2100? Is it going to be a city that has prepared itself for the future, or one that was caught off-guard violating environmental laws in favour of development— that elusive word that can mean so many things, including a good quality of life..For one, the city's skyline is now dotted with high-rise buildings, which are more than 100 m high and not, as one would think, 15 m high. Unlike Swiss–French architect, designer, painter, urban planner and writer Le Corbusier's 1930 plan for Paris with the concept of a 'tower in a park' that proposed razing the squalid old cities in the 1920s Europe and replacing them with skyscrapers to house all residents, while leaving enough room for parking, lawns, trees and other landscaping elements, we find open spaces only on the podiums of the skyscrapers or on their roofs..Also read: The sinking of Joshimath — an administrative enquiry.Parking and construction menace.More and more developers are promoting gated communities with 'adequate parking' for cars, which means valuable real estate in every building being dedicated for car parking, some in the basement; many going up to even 15 storeys of car parking, paid for by the undiscerning urban buyer, ready to mortgage their life on a bank loan. Even the thought of driving or parking a car through this labyrinth of ramps, and famished parking attendants guiding one through perpetually-closed, poor air-quality basement spaces puts me off the idea of owning a car in Mumbai. It is a nightmare!.Mumbai's Development Control Regulation (DCR) 33/7 serves to 'salvage' the city of its old and dilapidated buildings, which are but quaint bungalows or buildings of up to four storeys in Bandra, Santacruz and other suburbs. Those owners or tenants, who are unable to maintain their buildings, fall easy prey to developers who offer them lucrative deals of free homes over and above the existing house, sometimes double the size..Who in their right mind wouldn't go for this deal, especially senior citizens who can barely manage without lifts in old buildings and when it makes more sense to redevelop than to add a lift to one's building— as the cost would be the same. So, in comes a developer for every adjoining plot, transforming the city's skyline..Each building has 100 percent more cars, and has the required light and ventilation as per the DCR of Mumbai, but jostles for light and ventilation with the neighbouring redeveloped building. These buildings offer vague promises of a sea view or a garden view, which are all misnomers as the views are quickly blocked by the friendly neighbour in the next plot. And all that you get as an owner is a two BHK pigeon-hole in a tower, up from a one BHK, and maybe a parking space and a podium with a garden— all packaged as 'heaven on earth'..“Even the thought of driving or parking a car through this labyrinth of ramps, and famished parking attendants guiding one through perpetually-closed, poor air-quality basement spaces puts me off the idea of owning a car in Mumbai. It is a nightmare! .What about the cars rolling out every day into a narrow street that is meant for a single car instead of a hundred? Does that qualify as development and part of a good quality of life? Nobody increased the size of this street. Yet the city managers believe that this will not be a problem! After all, we are building so many more roads and flyovers..Mumbai losing its essence.And that brings me once again, after many years, into the debate about the Coastal Road— which, when I wrote about it back in 2015, amounted to an unbelievable ₹8,000 crore, but is now believed to cost an even greater estimated ₹12,500 crore! In the bargain, we have lost the city once more: this time, its marvellous views..Which city in the world compromises on its points of pride? For Mumbai, it is the sea. I so distinctly remember seeing bus-loads of people from the interiors of India alighting at Girgaon Chowpatty, literally rushing out at the sight of the expansive beach and endless sea, almost like kids fascinated by the sight..The sea, the sun and the sky: these are what make Mumbai. The breeze removes any and every feeling of claustrophobia that ever was and can be to anyone. And here we are putting ₹12,500 crore 'to good use'— in closing this uninterrupted view so that only those who own cars can get this view while moving at top speed on the Coastal Road! What a monstrously destructive thought..Gone is the Worli Sea Face, gone is the Breach Candy Sea Face and the Bandra Sea Face. All of that glorious view of the sea and the sunset has been sold to the car industry through subliminal marketing..Big cars, big energy requirement.And that brings me to a new observation about the city. Medium and small sized cars like the Maruti 800, Zen and the Nano have now been replaced by SUVs dominating whatever space is left on the roads after the digging on the metro project, storm water realignments and construction work. They are driven maniacally by drivers who assume the road is all theirs, and constantly honk in almost a language all its own. Many of these SUVs, that are, by the way, the biggest energy guzzlers of all cars, are singly-occupied cars taking twice the road space and attempting to drive at speeds seen in advertisements on TV..Parking, the view and now even precious road space meant for elusive public transportation and pedestrians are all gone. The unfortunate pedestrian, who is pushed from encroached footpaths to walk on the roads or cross at traffic signals, has to run helter-skelter or create their own rules. So what if they make up more than half of the modal share of transportation in Greater Mumbai? They can now hope to watch and buy Dior fashion in the only public plaza of Mumbai, the Gateway of India!.Will the city survive this onslaught of real estate and road-building propaganda? Are we ready to face the coastal inundation due to climate change, as predicted by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its reports? Is all the real estate being put up to meet the housing demands of the large number of people in this city who live in squalid conditions— in slums or on footpaths? Or is it adding to the global carbon emissions through the embodied carbon of cement and steel, especially as the city managers envision and announce a Net Zero City by 2030?.Best practices world wide.Among cities making efforts towards net zero carbon emissions are Paris, which is creating a 650 km long cycle way in an effort to reduce carbon emissions from transport, and Bogota, which has made 75 miles of streets car-free. Other worldwide trends include making building envelopes and systems more energy efficient, reducing the embodied energy of material resources, and recycling/upcycling and reusing resources..“The sea, the sun and the sky: these are what make Mumbai. The breeze removes any and every feeling of claustrophobia that ever was and can be to anyone. And here we are putting ₹12,500 crore 'to good use'— in closing this uninterrupted view so that only those who own cars can get this view while moving at top speed on the Coastal Road! What a monstrously destructive thought..Cities like Geneva in Switzerland and Bistrita in Romania are using an advanced spatial energy planning 'geographic information system' (GIS) tool called 'Hotmaps GIS toolbox' to conduct pilot tests demonstrating heat demand savings of up to 40 percent by retrofitting 70 percent of the cities' buildings prior to introducing the policy and incentives..In the United Kingdom, the London Building Stock Model provides a snapshot of all of London's buildings, including demand and energy performance data, helping identify poorly performing buildings..Singapore and Los Angeles are using similar tools to aid in energy-efficient planning of cities..These tools help show how different designs, technologies and equipment affect energy demand pathways. The LA100 study, done for Los Angeles by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, a US research institute, aimed to show opportunities to achieve a 100 percent renewables-supplied city by 2045. The study calculated that these measures would avoid between US $472 million and US $1.55 billion in distribution network investments..Kale wouldn't have liked the status quo..Former municipal commissioner (1991–95) Kale (who also headed the disaster management cell of Mumbai several years ago, during which time I had the privilege of interacting with him) would not have envisaged the challenges of disaster management that we face today..It is time for our city managers and us citizens to decide on our city's future in light of the changing climate.

Whither Mumbai 2050?

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