India’s challenges towards achieving net-zero goals

At the twenty-sixth Conference of Parties at Glasgow in 2021, India made a commitment of reaching net zero by 2070, and reaching 500 gigawatts (GW) of non-fossil fuel energy by 2030— an optimistic target considering the current status.                   

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ENERGY is and has been at the centre of all socio-political affairs globally. The race for finite energy resources has, in the past, raked up world wars and continues to guide geo-political events of the present and future. 

Carbon emissions from this addictive fossil fuel-powered energy has, however, raised the global average carbon dioxide levels from 300 parts per million (ppm) in pre-industrial years to more than 400 ppm now, leading to climate imbalance and foreboding extreme weather events. 

Also read: Our Future in Renewable Energy

This has resulted in world leaders meeting at the Paris Climate Summit to make commitments to reduce their energy footprint and carbon emissions. 

Despite all advancements in technology, oil, coal and gas still power more than 80 percent of the world today. Renewables such as solar and wind still amount for only 1.1 and 2.2 percent of primary energy, while hydro and nuclear amount to 6 percent and 4 percent respectively.

India's over-dependence on coal

India is the world's third-largest consumer of energy, according to the India Energy Outlook 2021 published by the International Energy Agency. Although our per capita energy consumption of 1,181 kilowatt hour (kWh), (2018–19) is less than half of the global average per capita consumption, it is growing at the fastest rate in the world. 

Commercial primary energy consumption in India has grown by about seven times in the last four decades. As per the Ministry of Power, of the total installed power generation capacity, 57 percent is from fossil fuels, mostly thermal coal, and 41.4 percent is from non-fossil sources including hydro power (11 percent), solar, wind, co-generation and waste-to-energy, with 1.6 percent being nuclear. 

Also read: Green hydrogen, solar energy solutions to coal crisis

As regards energy overall, that is, including transportation and non-electric energy requirements mainly from the industrial sector, coal remains the king. It is India's main source of energy generation contributing 80 percent along with oil and biomass. The share of solar energy and natural gas to India's energy mix is 4 percent and 6 percent respectively. 

Oil is the main source of energy for the transportation sector, 75 percent of which is imported (up to 4.4 million barrels per day in 2019) and expected to go up to 90 percent by 2040. A major concern for energy security is its dependence on global market fluctuations and geo-political situations— nearly 60 percent is imported from the Middle East, 17 percent from the United States and 16 percent from Nigeria and Venezuela. 

Although capacity addition of non-fossil energy sources is significant, 41 percent of the total, amounting to 172 GW, power generation is significantly less especially for solar and wind mainly due to the non-availability throughout the year, efficiency of storage and issues related to maintenance. To raise this figure to 500 GW in the next seven years would require holistic planning and gargantuan efforts from all sectors, especially indigenous manufacturing. 

Slow transition towards renewable energy

As per the National Electricity Plan (NEP), peak electricity demand of India could reach 366 GW in 2031–32 from the current 203 GW and India would achieve a target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel energy by end of 2029–30. This would require additional capacity generation. 

While the NEP projected an increase in solar energy production to meet this demand, much of the increase in production will come from thermal coal plants. In a status report released by the Ministry of Power recently, 10 thermal units of an aggregate 7 GW capacity are expected to be commissioned in the fiscal year 2022–23 alone. 

In a global report titled Renewable Energy Market Update, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a slowdown in India's renewable sector in 2023–24 mainly due to higher prices, lower auction volumes and trade policies. High dependence on imports is also a major factor: India is still largely dependent on countries like China for solar modules. 

Also read: Concerns over the Electricity (Amendment) Bill, 2022

Other hurdles for solar modules include lack of backward integration in the solar value chain as India has no capacity for manufacturing solar wafers and polysilicon. 

In 2021–22, India imported nearly US $76.62 billion worth of solar cells and modules from China alone, accounting for 78.6 percent of India's total of solar cell and module imports that year. Land scarcity, transmission and distribution losses, and low cost-to-benefit ratio are other factors impeding the growth of solar power in India.

In 2019–20, for instance, solar power contributed only 3.6 percent, that is, 50 billion units (BU) of India's total power generation of 1,390 BU. 

Need for a strong and efficient policy framework

Lack of policy on solar waste management is also a rising concern among environmentalists as solar panel-related waste is predicted to grow  four  to five times within the next ten years. Water for cleaning the units, a major factor in solar efficiency, is also a significant issue. 

India is urbanising rapidly. Nearly 30 percent of Indian residents now live in cities, consume the more refined form of energy— that is, electricity— and have consumption patterns similar to that in the developed world, while rural inhabitants in most parts still depend on biomass to meet their cooking and other requirements. 

New Delhi's per capita electricity consumption in 2015 was earmarked at 7.8 MWh, which is higher than Italy (5.4 MWh), Spain (5.5 MWh), Germany (6.7 MWh), France (7.6 MWh) and many other European countries. 

Focus on sustainable development

Although the net-zero targets of India appear optimistic, I think that it is worthwhile to go on this path. As an architect, I have always believed that buildings must reduce their impact on their immediate and global environment and I imagine a future in which each building is self-contained much like the backpack of a mountaineer or trekker. From the energy standpoint, this entails, first of all, designing an energy-efficient envelope. In fact, our traditional houses are replete with these techniques. 

During a recent study that we undertook in the village of Pangna in Mandi district of Himachal Pradesh, the envelope of the traditional houses were made of stacks of stone in between a grid of deodar wood, plastered with a mixture of a local straw and mud creating a ventilated wall which kept the indoor temperature stable throughout the year. 

Also read: Climate education in India; Falling behind, looking ahead

Add to that features such as zero window-to-wall ratio on the ground floor, verandah, balconies and courtyards, where people spent most of the habitable time, makes for intelligent architecture, but one that is being rapidly replaced by a typical pattern of reinforced cement concrete (RCC) buildings. This is but a replica of what is happening throughout the country and forebodes a reliance on more energy-consuming devices such as fans and air conditioners. 

The challenge for India to meet its climate commitments of 2021 and those under the Paris Agreement is major, but one that India can take on. This will require a paradigm shift, a major transformation across all sectors. Implementation and strict enforcement across all states of policies such as the Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC), providing incentives for renewable energy development and support to this industry by way of tax relaxations and easing import duties, reviving and restoring our traditional architecture and adapting it in the modern context— all this and more— a holistic approach can see us through. 

Also read: Environment must prevail over other rights, forests have to be preserved: SC

In addition, massive afforestation programmes are needed to reduce our carbon emissions and that will take us closer to our commitment to the Planet Earth to restore its bounties and live in harmony with the rest of the creation.